Dairy cows on William Irvine’s farm. Picture: Cliff Donaldson
Commodity watch by policy officer Andrew Robinson
As we head into autumn, milk deliveries across Northern Ireland continue the strong upward trend seen throughout the spring and summer months. According to AHDB figures, May deliveries were up 9.3% compared to May 2024, reaching a total of 274 million litres. Given this sustained growth, it is not surprising that processors are already signalling further price reductions. This comes on the back of all processors having already cut their July milk price.
Recent figures show that the 12-month rolling milk price from August 2024 to July 2025 averaged 44.13 ppl for an average sized supplier with standard quality milk. While this may seem like a fair price, when compared to the 28.53 ppl paid in October 1995, it equates to an increase of 0.5 ppl per year over three decades. Between October 1995 and May 2025, the average Northern Ireland farm gate milk price was just 25.09 ppl highlighting the many years during which milk prices fell well below sustainable levels.
Dairy cow figures
In the last thirty years, the agricultural sector has seen considerable change none more so than the dairy industry with Market Deregulation (1995), industry consolidation, sustained growth in production, and mounting environmental and regulatory pressures. In 1993, Northern Ireland had approximately 273,000 dairy cows across 6,179 dairy farms, with an average herd size of 44 cows and an average yield of 4,930 litres per cow. According to the 2024 DAERA June Census, the number of dairy cows has risen to 325,000, while the number of dairy farms has declined by half to 3,133. The average herd size has more than doubled to 104 cows, with average yields increasing to 8,000 litres per cow. Records from 1995 show there were 39 dairy processors in Northern Ireland, many of which had either consolidated or exited the industry by 2025. In 2006, the sector saw the introduction of the first Nitrates Action Programme, marking a significant shift towards ever increasing environmental regulation.
Challenges
Dairy farmers in Northern Ireland have faced major challenges over the past 30 years, including rising costs and inflation. Fertiliser prices alone have more than tripled since 1995, and overall inflation has increased by 169%. Yet the price paid per litre in October 1995 has risen by just 15.60 ppl when compared to the rolling average between August 2024 and July 2025 far from enough to drive growth or sustainability. Instead, it is the farmers resilience and efforts in improving genetics, feed efficiency, and farming practices that have kept their sector going through unprecedented change and unpredictable global markets whilst remaining competitive and maintaining some of the highest farming standards globally.
